Broncos vs Bills
The Bills heavily rely on their offense with Josh Allen and James Cook but they might be doomed because the Broncos are 3rd in pass rush win rate, and 4th in run stop win rate. But this will actually be a great battle because the Bills offensive line is 3rd best in pass block, and best in run block win rate. It will still be hard for Josh Allen to get going as the Broncos are one of the top secondary’s in the NFL, and the Bills Don’t have a very good receiving core. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos have a heavy advantage as the Bills are bottom 10 in pass rush and run stop while the Broncos have the leagues best offensive line. The Bills secondary is also bad, and Courtland Sutton should be able to play insane. The Broncos will control this entire game and I don’t think this game will be close Broncos 27, Bills 10
Seahawks vs 49ers:
The 49ers offense is the sole reason that they are still alive in the playoffs, and they will have to go up against a tough Seattle defense in the playoffs. Christian McCaffery is carrying this 49ers offense, but Seattles defense is 3rd in run stop win rate which will hold McCaffery. The other factor is Brock Purdy being able to get his passes off. The Seahawks are 7th in pass rush win rate, and the 49ers offensive line is top 10 in pass block win rate, so this will be a close battle. The hard part is that Seattle is top 5 in least passing yards allowed so that will force incompletions. Sam Darnold and Jaxson-Smith-Njigba have carried Seattles offense this year, and good for Seattle is that the 49ers defense is the worst in the playoffs. San Francisco is bottom 10 in pass yards allowed, and WR1 yards allowed to their opponents which really hurts them. This game seems to be a blowout
Seahawks 30, 49ers 13
Patriots vs Texans
The only reason the Patriots are here is Drake Maye. Drake Maye this year is 4th in yards, 3rd in TDs, and 1st in QBR. The Texans defense may be his kryptonite though. The Texans defense this year is the best in the league being, 1st in least yards, 5th in least pass yards, and 4th in least rush yards, and they are 1st in pass rush win rate. So for the Patriots to win their defense will need to step up. So what can Houston’s offense do? The Texans are 13th in points, 16th in total yards, bottom 10 in rushing and 13th in pass yards. The only reason the Texans offense is somewhat good is because of Nico Collins. Hard part for Collins tough is he will have to face Christian Gonzalez, which will be very tough for the Texans offense to get going. The Patriots defense is 8th best in pass defense, 6th in run defense, and 6th in total defense. Another bad part is the Texans are 2nd worst in block win rate. For me this is the tiebreaker: Experience. Stroud has been to the playoffs every year of his career, and so has most of his team. For Maye and and most of their players this is their 1st time going as this is a young team. This will be a low-scoring very close game
Patriots 14, Texans 17
Bears vs Rams
What a fun game this is. The Rams are the more experienced and better well-rounded roster, while the Bears are just a magical team. We all know the Bears as the 4th quarter kings, so for the Rams to win they will need to stop that. The Rams are 11th in 4th quarter points allowed, which is a lot better than the Packers who are the 4th worst 4th quarter defense in the NFL. Another factor in this game is stopping the MVP and OPOY in Matt Stafford and Puka Nacua. The hard part for the Bears is that they are the 3rd worst passing touchdowns defense, bottom 10 in completion percentage allowed, and they allow the 6th most pass yards. This game seems pretty lopsided, but the Rams always underperform
Bears 24, Rams 31