This is one of the weirdest NFL seasons we’ve seen in recent memory. Phillip Rivers coming out of retirement, the Ravens suck, the Bears, and Colts are good, the Chiefs won’t make the playoffs? This is one of the harder super bowls to predict, so I will do it now.
#1: Having a top 10 QB Of the last 10 Super Bowl Winners all of them have had a top ranked QB. 3 have had the best and 5 have had top 5 QBs, and 2 of them were 10th. It is nearly impossible to win a Super Bowl without a top 10 QB. This year of the top 10 contenders in the odds 5 of them have top 10 ranked QBs according to NFL.coms QB rankings. Those 5 are the Rams (Stafford), Patriots (Maye) Packers (Love) Bills (Allen) and 49ers (Purdy) So for my Super Bowl debate these are the contenders with points 1. Rams: 4 Points 2. Patriots: 3 Points 3. Bills: 2 Points 4. Packers: 1 point 5. 49ers: 0 points
#2: S.OS
7 of the last 10 Super Bowl champions have had a strength of schedule in the top 10 hardest. This matters a lot because if you have an easy schedule that’s basically a pretender. The Patriots have had the easiest schedule so far which could be the sole reason they are winning. Well after checking every team sucks and is a pretender. None of the teams listed above have a top 10 schedule. So you know what? Let’s add teams. Texans, Eagles and Lions all have top 10 schedules, and are strong contenders. So let me update the scoring based off of QB rankings and S.O.S. After QB:
- Rams: 7
- Patriots: 6
- Bills: 5
- Lions: 4
- Packers: 3
- 49ers: 2
- Eagles: 1
- Texans: 0
After S.O.S: 1. Texans: 7 2. Eagles: 7 3. Lions: 8 4. Rams: 11 5. 49ers: 5 6. Packers: 5 7. Bills: 6 8. Patriots: 6
Currently the Rams look like the lead favorite by far, the Pats took a swing down, the Packers and 49ers are tied for worst, and the Lions are second out of nowhere. Next let’s look at the offensive line. Of the last ten Super Bowl winners 8 of them have had top 10 offensive lines. 5 of those were top 5 offensive lines, and those led to having a star running back. Offensive line is so important in today’s league, and most of the best teams have top lines. For example the Rams who lead this right now have the top ranked offensive line. The Patriots have the lowest ranked O-Line of all these teams which makes them even more of a pretender. These are the updated scores: 1. Rams: 18 2. Lions: 14 3. Bills: 11 4. Eagles: 11 5. 49ers: 8 6. Texans: 9 7. Packers: 6 8. Patriots: 6
After looking over the offensive line the Patriots and Packers are the worst? These Rams are on top by a mile, and the Lions who might miss are actually good contenders? So far the Rams are clearly winning it all but what is next? Run defense. Of the last 10 Super Bowl winners 8 of them were in the top 10 for east rush yards allowed. 5 of them were even top 5. Stopping the running back is a key part of the game, forcing the other team to throw which could turn into turnovers. For this year of my contenders the Patriots are allowing the 3rd least rushing yards, while the Bills are allowing the 5th most. Here is the updated scores for each team:
- Patriots: 13
- Texans: 15
- Packers: 11
- Lions: 18
- Rams: 21
- 49ers: 10
- Eagles: 12
- Bills: 11
Well after looking at it the Super Bowl is an obvious winner. And currently who would have guessed that the Eagles, Bills, and Packers are actually pretenders? Oh wait everybody. Final Super Bowl Projections:
- Rams: 21/28 possible points
- Lions: 18/28 possible points
- Texans 15/28 possible points
- Patriots: 13/28 possible points
- Eagles: 12/28 possible points
- Packers: 11/28 possible points
- Bills: 11/28 possible points
- 49ers: 10/28 possible points