By Ayla Babanikos, Environmental Communicator/UF Thompson Earth Systems Institute
To be a Floridian is to know hurricanes. If you live in Florida, you probably have an evacuation plan ready and a pantry full of unperishable goods. While you may experience hurricane season yearly, sometimes it's easy to get confused about certain words and images used by weather forecasters to communicate a storm's path, intensity and potential impact. Read on to keep up-to-date on hurricane terms, symbols, measurement instruments, current research and more!
What Exactly is the Cone of Uncertainty?
You may know this image — as the first storm approaches, the local weather forecasters begin flashing an image of a cone marked with letters. You quickly scan to see if you or your loved ones live within this projected path. This projection is known as the “cone of uncertainty.” But, like its name, its purpose can sometimes be confused.
Corene Matyas, tropical climatologist, hurricane expert and professor of geography at the University of Florida, talked with TESI to explain what the cone of uncertainty is, and what it is not.
According to Matyas, the cone is simply “where the center of the storm is expected to go, based on past forecast success, two-thirds of the time.” This means that when tracking a storm, scientists look at accurate National Hurricane forecasts over the past five years. The cone is drawn so that two-thirds of the time, the center will remain in the cone. The cone can give a sense of how fast a storm is expected to move and whether it’s expected to intensify.
But, Matyas stresses that the cone of uncertainty is not indicative of the size of the storm or where the worst impact will be. It does not represent the damage the storm may cause. Rain bands can extend for miles outside of this cone. Matyas warns that people should not only focus on the eye, or center, of the storm, as the span of potential impact can range over a much larger area.
“It is not a cone of influence,” Matyas said.
The cone of uncertainty is often marked up with various symbols to help show a storm’s intensity (as seen in the image above). They are as follows:
How are Hurricanes Studied?
According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) scientists use "satellites, computer modeling, instruments, aircraft and field missions" to study storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has a group of researchers known as Hurricane Hunters who lead the field missions. These instruments and operations help "forecasters make accurate predictions during a hurricane and help hurricane researchers achieve a better understanding of storm processes, improving their forecast models."
Matyas is currently studying how moisture influences storms. She hypothesizes that more moisture could potentially increase the rainfall area, rain rates or both.
To conduct her research, Matyas analyzes current rainfall patterns that she gets from Doppler radar and publicly available rainfall data from NOAA. Using radar, scientists can make predictions for which areas will experience flooding and heavy rainfall. Radar gives researchers a complete scan every five to six minutes with high spatial and temporal resolution.
In her research, Matyas isolates individual points within a storm to get an understanding of its structure and how quickly it’s changing. Matyas also uses precipitation data sets from space-borne instruments, like satellites, which gives her a better sense of a storm’s entire life cycle.
What Should Floridians Understand About Their Individual Responsibilities During Hurricane Season?
Information
The National Hurricane Center, located in Miami on the Florida International University Campus, keeps a continuous watch on storms within the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins and issues advisories so people can know what to expect as a storm approaches. Additionally, the National Weather Service provides forecasts to help you plan for rain and windfall in your area. Your local news station will often use both of these resources to provide information that's useful to you.
How to interpret storm advisories:
- Hurricane Watch: Indicates that conditions favorable to a hurricane are possible.
- Hurricane Warning: Indicates that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere in the region.
- Storm Surge Watch: Indicates the possibility of a storm surge occurring.
- Storm Surge Warning: Indicates the current danger of a storm surge.
Personal Responsibilities
Before a hurricane, understand your position relative to where the storm is forecasted to go. Are you in a flood zone? Near a river? Check your home's flood potential with FEMA's Flood Map Search.
Ensure your home is safe enough to withstand a storm if you choose not to evacuate. When was it built? Is it meant for the conditions that are coming? Is it rated for category X storms? Is your garage door rated for a certain wind threshold, depending on where you are in the state?
Hurricanes are different every year. Understand what the cone of uncertainty means, how researchers study these storms, and what you need to do to prepare for one.
Information provided by NOAA, NASA, and Corene Matyas.
This story is part of the UF Thompson Earth Systems Institute's student-produced Earth to Florida newsletter that curates the state’s environmental news and explains what’s going on, why it matters and what we can do about it.
The University of Florida Thompson Earth Systems Institute is advancing communication and education about Earth systems science in a way that inspires Floridians to be effective stewards of our planet.