QUÉBEC’S $11 BILLION DEFICIT: ARE HEALTH AND SOCIAL SERVICE WORKERS TO BLAME?
So the deficit wasn’t $4 billion – it was $11 billion. That was the big surprise in the CAQ’s 6th budget, tabled on March 12 – although the stage had already been set a few weeks earlier when premier Legault talked about the negative “financial consequences” of recent contract talks.
A GROSS EXAGGERATION
The government was counting on a bargain-basement deal with its employees, but that plan didn’t work out. Something like a billion dollars had been set aside in last year’s budget to cover the cost of worker gains in the next collective agreement; a year later, after a historic mobilization, an additional $3 billion was required, for a total of $4 billion.
This is a big amount with an undeniable impact on the government deficit, but it’s a long way from being the sole explanation for the current state of our public finances. Therefore, unionized workers shouldn’t have to take the blame for the deficit – especially since they’re the ones using every last ounce of their strength to hold the system together! Also, a new collective agreement without any significant impact on the budget would be completely incompatible with improved working conditions – and that, in our view, would be complete insanity.
THE CAQ BROUGHT IT ON ITSELF
To understand how the deficit went from $4 billion to $11 billion, we need to look at other aspects.
- The government chose to put $2.2 billion in the Generations Fund, even though Québec’s debt is under control according to every credible indicator.
- The finance minister chose to increase the deficit by $1.5 billion by putting that amount in his provision for economic risk.
- Since taking power, the CAQ has chosen to give away $2.7 billion in tax handouts that are most beneficial to the very rich.
Any serious attempt to explain the deterioration of our public finances has to take these factors into account.
WHAT’S IN THE BUDGET
As usual, the government would rather scatter funds in a few areas than massively reinvest in the health and social services system. Here are some examples:
- $360M to ensure access to care and improve “patient flow” in hospitals by using artificial intelligence to accelerate the digital transition, by developing alternatives to hospital stays (such as having people recover at home), and by relying on a front-line service access point to avoid sending people to emergency rooms.
- $222M for care and services for seniors: improving home care, opening Maisons des aînés and putting more private CHSLDs under agreement.
- $146M distributed among youth protection, mental health services, general social services, help for people living with a disability, community organizations, the Agir tôt program, and the fight aganst addiction.
WHAT’S NOT IN THE BUDGET
For the third consecutive year, the APTS has asked the government to create a budgetary shield that would protect the health and social services system, guaranteeing a minimum level of funding to prevent any return to austerity. Once again, the CAQ has refused to consider that option, as we can see by comparing percentages:
- 4.2% is the budget increase that the government has given the health and social services system for 2024-2025;
- 5.2% is the minimum yearly increase required to ensure that Canadian provinces can maintain appropriate levels of service until 2040, according to a Conference Board study;
- 6.5% is the increase that would have been provided if there had been a budgetary shield.
The finance minister claims that health was his budget’s top priority – it seems pretty clear he missed the target.
REVERSE PRIVATIZATION, OR GO BACK TO AUSTERITY?
Before the budget was tabled, the APTS had suggested that the finance minister adopt an ambitious five-year plan to reverse the privatization of the health and social services system. The idea was to bring the share of expenditures allotted to the private sector back down to 18%, which is where it was at its lowest in 1979. To do this, the government would have to commit to increasing the budget for the public system by $1.6 billion a year over five years so that it could take back the space previously gained by private companies.
Instead of following this bold course, the CAQ has chosen to stake everything on its future Santé Québec agency, stubbornly maintaining its plan to open private mini-hospitals (among other things).
STORMY WEATHER AHEAD
Minister Girard announced that in March 2025, he will table a plan to get back to a balanced budget. He’s already promised that he won’t increase income tax or the provincial sales tax to achieve this, and it seems clear that the stimulation provided by economic growth won’t be enough. So what exactly is he suggesting?
Basically, we’re talking déjà vu: we’ll be recycling the strategy put forward by Philippe Couillard and Carlos Leitão in 2014, a strategy that is vividly remembered since it was the beginning of Québec’s budget austerity. The minister announced the government’s intention to:
- review every aspect of Québec’s tax system in the spirit of the Godbout Commission, which argued for major tax cuts;
- review all spending on the part of ministries and government organizations (the term you’re looking for is “budget cuts”), in the spirit of the Robillard Commission.
In other words, getting back to a balanced budget is a process that will be shaped by these two review exercises announced in the 2024-2025 budget – which does not bode well for our ability to fund the government’s missions or maintain a tax system that would make that funding possible.
We’ll have to be vigilant – and ready to mobilize!