The photo above features printed materials featuring analysis on U.S. trade policy and tariff disputes. Photo by Haillie Cherry.
As Ohio’s agricultural industry contends with rising production costs, shifting weather patterns and potential policy changes, farmers are exploring strategies to maintain productivity and adapt to an evolving landscape. Experts and industry leaders continue to examine how trade policies, labor shortages and climate resilience efforts will shape the future of agriculture in the state.
The Agricultural Outlook and Policy Conference
The Ohio State Agricultural Outlook and Policy Conference is an annual event held in November at the Nationwide and Ohio Farm Bureau 4-H Center on Ohio State campus. that brings together experts, policymakers and industrial leaders to discuss the challenges and opportunities facing agriculture in Ohio.
“The topics change a little bit depending on the expertise,” said Margaret Jodlowski, assistant professor at the Ohio State University. “[But] those core ag policies, ag commodity markets, and trade have been consistent for a long time.”
The conference is a full-day event open to the public, attracting state senators, Extension educators, policymakers and Ohio State faculty. Organized by the Department of Agriculture, Environmental, and Development Economics, the event fosters collaboration and knowledge-sharing among attendees. At the most recent event, a variety of issues were discussed.
Trade Policy Developments Impacting Ohio Farmers
Outside of the conference, experts continue to analyze the effects of trade policies on Ohio’s farmers. In recent years, shifts in U.S. trade relationships have influenced export markets, specifically for soybeans, corn and other key commodities.
Trade relations with China remain a focal point, with data showing that U.S. market shares for feed grains and soybeans had already been declining before a significant trade dispute in 2018.
“The data actually show that we were already losing market share for both feed grains and soybeans in China,” said Ian Sheldon, Professor and Andersons Chair of Agricultural Marketing, Trade and Policy at Ohio State.
China has since expanded agricultural trade relationships with Brazil, and has increased domestic production of key crops, contributing to further shifts in global markets. Ohio is a leading producer of soybeans and corn, two key exports to China. As China diversifies its trade partners, these changes could influence demand for U.S. agricultural products, potentially impacting Ohio farmers.
Trade policies involving Canada and Mexico have also been a point of focus. A recent trade dispute ruling in favor of the United States prevented potential disruptions to corn exports.
“We just dodged a bullet on exports of genetically modified corn to Mexico,” Sheldon said. “If that ban had been implemented, it could have significantly reduced U.S. market share in Mexico and negatively impacted corn prices.”
With potential new tariffs on the horizon, analysts are watching how future trade policies might affect agreements under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Labor Market Trends in Ohio Agriculture
The agricultural labor market in Ohio is shaped by workforce availability, industry demands and competition with other sectors. While large row crop farms rely heavily on mechanization and a smaller, skilled labor force, industries such as dairy, poultry, and greenhouse production depend on a steady supply of agricultural workers.
“Ohio is very interesting because in the western half of the state, you have large row crop farms that are not labor-intensive,” Jodlowski said. “But then you have these really highly concentrated, highly valuable segments of the ag industry—greenhouses, horticulture, floriculture, and animal agriculture—that rely heavily on immigrant labor.”
As cities across Ohio expand, agricultural employers are facing increased competition from industries such as construction and manufacturing, which often offer higher wages and more predictable working conditions. For smaller and mid-sized farms, this competition makes it challenging to recruit and retain workers.
Jodlowski said federal immigration policies could affect labor availability in industries reliant on seasonal and migrant workers, potentially pushing farms to consider mechanization or alternative workforce strategies if shortages persist.
Climate Challenges and Agricultural Innovation
Beyond trade, experts have also pointed to climate-related challenges as a growing concern for Ohio farmers. Drought conditions in parts of Ohio have affected yields, raising questions about the need for more climate-resilient crops.
“The big seed companies need to be putting more research into drought-resistant crops, particularly corn,” Sheldon said. “Irrigation and water issues may become more important with climate change.”
Experts have observed shifting weather patterns, including longer dry periods and more intense rainfall, which have contributed to challenges such as runoff and lower yields in some areas. While farmers cannot develop drought-resistant crops themselves, participation in field trials and collaboration with researchers could play a role in addressing these issues.
The photo above features printed materials featuring analysis on U.S. trade policy and tariff disputes. Photo by Haillie Cherry.
Ohio State’s Role in Agricultural Innovation and Policy
The Ohio State University faculty and researchers have been engaged in various policy initiatives, providing expertise on issues such as property taxation, environmental programs and land-use policies.
For example, the university is expected to play a role in shaping the future of the H2Ohio program, a state-funded initiative focused on improving water quality.
“I think Ohio State’s been pretty instrumental at various levels and various departments on things such as the H2Ohio program,” said Barry Ward, Director of Ohio State University Income Tax School for Ohio State University Extension.
Ward said the H2Ohio program is significant, and funding will be allocated in the upcoming biennial budget in June.
Beyond policy, Ohio State researchers contribute to advancements in agricultural science, including studies on soil health, water conservation, and precision farming. The university’s work supports farmers by providing data-driven solutions to improve yields and environmental sustainability.
Looking Ahead
The future of Ohio agriculture will depend on several factors, including immigration policy, wage trends, and technological advancements. Events like the Agricultural Outlook and Policy Conference will continue focusing on the issues facing the Ohio agriculture industry in order to be adaptive to change.