Transforming how the world responds to pandemics
The Jameel Institute-Kenneth C. Griffin Initiative for the Economics of Pandemic Preparedness will use pioneering integrated economic-epidemiological modelling to provide critical data and analysis to inform public health decisions related to pandemic preparedness and disease outbreaks around the world.
Under the leadership of Katharina Hauck, Professor for Health Economics and Deputy Director of the Jameel Institute, the new initiative brings together epidemiologists, economists and data modellers from across Imperial, together with researchers from the World Health Organisation and Singapore’s Programme For Research In Epidemic Preparedness And Response (PREPARE), National Centre for Infectious Diseases and Umeå University in Sweden.
Initially working with five countries including Singapore, the team will produce a publicly available digital scenario-based dashboard modelling preparedness levels of over 150 countries, as well as deep-dive studies on specific preparedness interventions. It will also provide evidence on the impact of alternative policy strategies - to governments, international health organisations and businesses, and work with partners to create a clear case for investing in pandemic preparedness.
We are deeply grateful for Community Jameel's and Kenneth C. Griffin's support of this vital initiative. Thank you for enabling our researchers provide tangible solutions that equitably meet the needs of all communities and help ensure global resilience to future pandemic threats.
“Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw the vital importance of accurate projections and modelling to prevent deaths. Unfortunately, they had much less reliable evidence on the enormous social and economic impacts of pandemic mitigation. Our mission is to establish a robust and trusted methodology to forecast the potential human impact of future pandemics, across health and the economy. We’re excited to be able to play a central role in this hugely important space moving forward and are grateful for the continued support from Community Jameel and Kenneth Griffin.”
Professor Katharina Hauck
DAEDALUS: A policy defining tool during COVID-19
One of the key modelling tools that will continue to be developed by Institute staff working on the Jameel Institute-Kenneth C. Griffin Initiative for the Economics of Pandemic Preparedness, is DAEDALUS. Created by the Jameel Institute, DAEDALUS is an integrated economic–epidemiological model that computes the optimal trajectory of selective opening and closing of economic sectors, while maximising GDP and keeping infections under control. During the COVID-19 pandemic, DAEDALUS has provided concrete policy guidance on smart opening and closure strategies differentiated by economic sectors. Before the development of this tool, there was very little evidence on how to optimally design lockdown policies during pandemics. By necessity, DAEDALUS is based on many assumptions, but it has provided urgently needed guidance to policymakers on how to design policies that balance key societal objectives. With a few changes to the epidemiological and economic parameters, DAEDALUS can be applied to any country and respiratory pandemic that requires mitigation measures.
Below are testimonials from Dr Chatura Wijesundara (National Consultant for Knowledge Management and Monitoring at WHO Country Office, Sri Lanka) and Dr Tonatiuh Gutierrez (Director of the Centre for Population Health at the Mexican National Institute of Public Health) who describe how DAEDALUS was adapted for their context and the impact it had on influencing policy makers during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We have been using the DAEDALUS model in two ways, the first is to inform our next pandemic preparedness plan and the second is to assess the impact of potential interventions we could have enacted to reduce obesity, and through the reduction of obesity, the impact that we would have seen in hospitalizations and deaths in Mexico. We are hoping that this will help us realise the importance of strengthening the health of the population overall, to be better prepared for the next pandemic and to have a population that is more resilient to infectious diseases.”
Dr Tonatiuh Gutierrez - Director of the Centre for Population Health, National Institute of Public Health, Mexico
“We teamed up with the Jameel Institute to develop an economic model for Sri Lanka during the third wave of the pandemic in the country. Sri Lanka had imposed stringent restrictions during the first and the second waves and the government was hesitant to impose further restrictions considering the economic constraints that it would have. We needed evidence to advocate to the government on the importance of imposing restrictions to ensure that the morbidity and mortality would be controlled. So that is where the economic modelling of Imperial supported us as we projected the COVID-19 trajectory in the country over a three month period. The results of the model were presented to senior officials of the Ministry of Health, the COVID-19 Task Force and the advisers of His Excellency the President. This was taken up by mainstream media as well. This modelling, along with other relevant information, meant that the government imposed a six week lockdown instead of the 10 days they were initially planning to curtail the Delta wave in the country. This meant there was a significant number of lives saved with mobility and mortality being controlled over a short period.”
Dr Chatura Wijesundara - National Consultant for Knowledge Management & Monitoring, WHO Country Office, Sri Lanka
We are deeply grateful for the support of our partners: