IN THIS MODULE YOU WILL LEARN ABOUT:

  • What goes into a hurricane forecast and the channels of communication at the National Hurricane Center that lead to warnings and decisions that need to be made by the officials?
  • What tools do the forecasters use to predict the path and the intensity of the hurricanes?
  • How the uncertainty is handled during a storm surge forecast?
  • How do researchers study the mechanisms behind the formation of hurricanes, predict their destructive powers during the landfall and quantify their economic impacts?
  • What is rapid intensification and how rather quickly a storm could change its structure and turn into a higher category?
  • Laboratory studies of air-sea interactions, turbulence, ocean surface currents and wave-current interactions at the University of Miami SUSTAIN facility.

INSTRUCTORS FOR THIS MODULE:

SHARANYA MAJUMDAR, Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences - Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science, Email: s.majumdar@miami.edu, Phone: (305) 421-4779

Research Interests: Predictability of tropical cyclone formation, motion, and intensification; weather risk communication; ensemble prediction; targeted observations aimed at optimizing current and future observing systems; data assimilation.

Teaching Interests: Tropical Weather and Forecasting; Atmospheric Science; Hurricanes; Predictability

Service Interests: Accountable Lead in University of Miami's "Roadmap To Our New Century" strategic planning; Former Graduate Program Director and Associate Dean of Graduate Studies; American Meteorological Society and World Meteorological Organization activities.

BRIAN HAUS, Professor, Department of Ocean Sciences - Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science, Email: B.HAUS@MIAMI.EDU, Phone: (305) 421-4932

Experimental studies of coastal ocean surface currents for application to oil spill transport prediction and response (CARTHE); radar remote sensing of oceanographic processes from satellites in collaboration with CSTARS and from coastal radars (http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu); shelf and inlet dynamics; wave-current interactions; laboratory studies of air-sea interactions in extreme winds, wave dynamics, turbulence and coastal structure design in the SUSTAIN laboratory.

LECTURE

Some questions from the videO

  • What goes into a hurricane forecast and the channels of communication at the National Hurricane Center that lead to warnings and decisions that need to be made by the officials?
  • What tools do the forecasters use to predict the path and the intensity of the hurricanes?
  • How is uncertainty handled during a storm surge forecast?
  • How do researchers study the mechanisms behind the formation of hurricanes, predict their destructive powers during the landfall and quantify their economic impacts?
  • What is rapid intensification and how rather quickly a storm could change its structure and turn into a higher category?
  • Laboratory studies of air-sea interactions, turbulence, ocean surface currents and wave-current interactions at the University of Miami SUSTAIN facility.

READING ASSIGNMENTS

CRITICAL THINKING ASSIGNMENT

PROBLEM STATEMENT

  • a. What are the main challenges that the public, hospitals, schools, businesses etc. in the Little River Adaptation Area face in making decisions as a hurricane approaches (<5 days before impact), knowing its potential flooding and wind threats, and their uncertainties?
  • b. How can we use laboratory studies to improve hurricane forecasts, and how does that help coastal communities deal with the hazards they cause?

For the critical thinking assignments below consider focusing your analysis on South Florida i.e. what are the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in "South Florida" in terms of dealing with hurricane forecast challenges or the storm surge.

Virtual Guest Speaker: Bill Read

Bill Read enjoyed a 35-year career with the National Weather Service, retiring in 2012 as Director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami. Prior to his serving at NHC, Bill was Meteorologist in Charge of the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in League City, Texas. Other NWS career assignments included Severe Storms & Flash Flood Program Leader at the agency’s headquarters in Silver Springs, MD, Forecaster at NWS forecast offices in Fort Worth and San Antonio, and research meteorologist in the NWS Test and Evaluation Division in Sterling VA. Bill served five years as an officer in the US Navy including two years flying with the Navy Hurricane Hunters out of Jacksonville, FL, one year as a forecaster in Keflavik, Iceland and one year as Officer in Charge, Navy Weather Detachment in Kingsville, TX. In retirement, Bill does part time consulting for Texas A&M at Galveston concerning tropical cyclones and climate change in support of resilience studies by the University. He also serves as moderator/MC for the National Tropical Weather Conference in person and weekly online training during hurricane season aimed at broadcast meteorologists.

Bill earned the Bachelor of Science degree (’71) and Master of Science degree (‘76) in Meteorology from Texas A&M University.

He is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society and has served as President of the National Weather Association (2003).

Further Explorations-- 360 video of Wave Simulation Tank at the SUSTAIN LAB

Further Explorations- Inside Hurricane Maria in 360°