Missouri August Primary
Missouri’s August Primary Election has concluded and it was a doozy. There were plenty of contested races with the conservative Freedom Caucus facing off against the more traditional Republicans and even a few contested races on the Democratic side, leading to some new players in the General Election in November.
The Congressional Delegation will look slightly different with Squad member Congresswoman Cori Bush losing to St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell. While their politics are very similar, the approach to the job will likely be different. Bell is expected to win handily in November.
In Congressional District 2, in suburban St. Louis, Congresswoman Ann Wagner held off a challenge from the Right. This district is more conservative after redistricting, but would still be considered the closest Missouri has to a “swing” district. Ray Hartmann, known for founding the Riverfront Times newspaper, will face an uphill battle against Wagner in the General.
Congressional District 3 is not a swing district, but was vacant after Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer chose not to seek re-election. As expected, Trump-endorsed former State Senator Bob Onder won the night.
The rest of the Congressional districts have no change with Democrat Lucas Kunce challenging Josh Hawley for the Senate, and all the other incumbents winning their primaries and likely to win in November.
For the statewide offices, there was a mixed bag of winners with Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe claiming the top spot in a crowded primary for Governor where he will now face off against House Minority Leader Crystal Quade. Kehoe is the likely winner and also likely to veer to the center now that he has secured his party’s nomination.
Current Appropriations Chairman Lincoln Hough lost a nail biter to St. Louis attorney and political newcomer Dave Wasinger in the primary for Lieutenant Governor. Wasinger is the likely winner in November, facing off against current State Representative Richard Brown.
The Freedom Caucus did pick up a win for Secretary of State with current State Senator Denny Hoskins. He will face off against Representative Barbara Phifer.
State Treasurer Vivek Malek fought off a slew of challengers to hold on to the seat he was appointed to by Governor Mike Parson. His organization and campaign spending was matched only by Kehoe’s. He is the likely winner in November, against Democrat Mark Osmack.
The State Senate was a bit of a split decision with five “traditional” Republicans and five Freedom Caucus members winning their primaries. This will likely result in a reduction in the numbers of Freedom Caucus members since several of their members could no longer run due to term limits. Senators Lincoln Hough and Mary Elizabeth Coleman will hold their seats after losing their primaries for statewide office.
The Democrats also had a good night with every incumbent holding on to their seats and several current and former House members claiming nominations for the Senate. They will likely flip Senate District 19, currently held by Senate President Caleb Rowden where former State Representative Stephen Webber is facing former write-in candidate James Coyne who has struggled to keep pace with Webber’s impressive fundraising.
There are several races to watch in November: District 11, where Representative Robert Sauls will try to keep Minority Leader JJ Rizzo’s seat in the Democratic camp when facing conservative Joe Nicola. District 15, where two moderate candidates claimed their party nominations – Democrat Joe Pereles will face former Representative David Gregory. District 17, which has long been a swing district north of Kansas City, where Democratic Representative Maggie Nurrenbern will face Republican Jerry Nolte. Finally, District 23, currently held by Freedom Caucus leader Bill Eigel, is a long shot for Democrats, but they believe the high number of union members in the district after redistricting could help Matt Williams in his race against Freedom Caucus member Adam Schnelting.
Even with the swing seats, Democrats will remain solidly in the minority in the Senate, but if they can net one more seat, they can break the Republican “supermajority” which would give them more seats on committees and prevent overrides of vetoes by the Governor.
Even beginning to get into the 163 races in the State House would be difficult, but new Speaker of the House Jon Patterson is likely to hold on to his party’s strong majority. House Democrats are also trying to break the supermajority by targeting 7 seats to flip while holding onto their current 51 seats. Perhaps the most difficult to hold will be the only semi-rural district held by Democratic Representative Adrian Plank in Boone County.
Redistricting and party in-fighting made for an interesting Primary Election and there will likely be many more surprises in the next three months before the General Election on November 5th. Stay tuned!
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