Last week I was gone in California but now I am back and writing more articles. Let’s get into what we learned after week 7
The 7 NFC playoffs teams are already set
Currently the next gen stats playoff percentages show that all 7 highest percentage teams are 70% playoff chance or above. Of all the non-qualified teams the highest odds are 34% Falcons and the 25% Bears which is not good at all. The 7 qualified teams are these teams: Lions, Buccaneers, Rams who are all Super Bowl worthy in my opinion, and Packers, Seahawks, 49ers, Eagles who are all certified playoff contenders. Of the non-qualified teams the Cardinals, Giants and Saints are already more than likely out, leaving 5 more teams. The Vikings have such a tough schedule, and the Bears really have just had a very easy schedule. That leaves 3 teams but the Cowboys defense is still the worst in the league, and can the Commanders bounce back? I have no clue but the Falcons are really the only team that could possibly make it. For me the Eagles, Packers, Lions, Bucs, and Rams are already in. So the 49ers and the Seahawks could miss but Sam Darnold is an elite QB, and the 49ers may be my pick of the one team that could miss.
The Rams are the new hot team
So far this year we have had many hot teams. It was the Bills, then Packers, then Lions, then Buccaneers, and now I think it’s the Rams. Matthew Stafford proved he can do anything, even without the league best receiver so far Puka Nacua, leading the league in passing touchdowns this week and on the season and being 3rd in league passing yards. The Rams now have the highest playoff percentage of any team in the NFC, and are 2nd in the league to the Colts who they beat. The Rams defense is one of the best in the league. Byron Young is tied for 1st in sacks, and the Rams as a team are top 10 in pass rush win rate and Kobie Turner is a top 10 defensive tackle in pass rush win rate. The Rams defense is top 10 in yards allowed per game, and their offense is one of the best in the league being top 10 in yards per game. The Rams are definitely a Super Bowl contender this year.
McCarthy or Wentz?
The Vikings yet again looked like a good team against the Eagles but sadly Carson Wentz has been holding them back. Wentz had 2 interceptions and the Vikings as a team had 2 touchdowns called back because of penalty’s and an overturned call. The Vikings most likely will go back to JJ McCarthy on Thursday night football but the interviews and other reports show that maybe he has been benched but we just don’t know. McCarthy had a rough first two games even though he did win NFC offensive player of the week. Carson Wentz seemed like the Vikings had more trust in him, by passing the ball a lot more and giving him more opportunities. Carson Wentz was better at getting the ball to his playmakers than JJM was. Justin Jefferson averages 100 yards per game with Carson Wentz and he was targeted 9 times per game. When McCarthy was at QB Jefferson averages 62 yards per game and 6 targets. You need to get the ball to your playmakers if you want to win so Carson may be the better option right now. But McCarthy needs game reps not just practice. If Carson keeps playing he won’t get them anywhere while JJ McCarthy has more upside for the Vikings.
My answer: If JJ isn’t 100% healthy just wait for it and let Carson go for another game. If he is healthy just two games won’t show what he can do so we need more game reps out of him and let McCarthy start.
The Texans are done and it’s not CJ Strouds fault.
People have said that Stroud isn’t good anymore, and he peaked as a rookie but that’s not true. This last game vs the Seahawks Stroud was pressured a whole 17 times, and the Texans are the 3rd worst team when it comes to pass blocking. CJ Stroud is 23rd in passing yards but it hasn’t helped that Nico Collin’s is top 20 in target share in the league but still he is 45th in receptions and 37th in receiving yards. The Texans have one of the hardest remaining schedules and for a AFC that looks very strong this year I don’t think they can make the playoffs. I don’t know if the Texans are gonna come back from this and by the end of the year they could be in rebuild mode.