Designing the future of healthcare
In an increasingly interconnected world, healthcare plays a vital role in equity, justice, international security, global cooperation, innovative discovery, and symbiotic cooperation.
As the twin forces of disorientation around human identity and the compounding global effects of a polycrisis collide, there is no industry more impacted than that of healthcare.
In April 2024, a global group of professionals from within and outside the healthcare sector joined forces to map the future of healthcare using Natural Foresight.
"The Foundations in Natural Foresight course offered by TFSX is an excellent starting point for understanding and applying strategic foresight. I found it particularly valuable because it has enabled me to offer a much more sophisticated approach to the communications strategy and crisis management work that I do for my clients."
The following is a summary of the think tank scenario output.
Think tank participants discovered where their natural strengths lie with a foresight leadership assessment.
We’ve gathered key insights about what it takes to grow and be successful in a sea of change; highlighting three leadership styles —adaptive, resilient, and transformative. Our cohort included 67% Adaptive Leaders, with one third scoring "Transformative" and just over 5% being Resilient.
Understanding their dominant leadership style, while learning how to embody all three ART traits, was an important aspect of the scenario process.
Participants worked across two weeks to develop Future of Healthcare scenarios.
They leveraged this process map in their efforts, applying tools from the Discover, Explore, Map, and Create facets of the Natural Foresight Framework.
Watch a short introduction to Natural Foresight.
"I have enjoyed every moment of my experience, the many practical and challenging lessons as well as the interactions with like-minded yet diverse people."
The Future of Healthcare Think Tank participants leveraged the Which World? archetypes to create the suite of scenarios for the year 2035.
We began our scenario development efforts by challenging our assumptions around the focal issue with Causal Layered Analysis.
Take a tour of the think tank's CLA Mural canvas.
With the reframed, transformational litany identified, think tank participants then moved into the Explore facet by applying the three ways of scanning to develop futures intelligence for their scenario work product.
Think tank participants utilized trend cards to kick-off their environmental scanning.
Once they explored their trends from the Point of Manifestation, they then considered the value shifts undergirding those issues (Point of Origin). Finally, they scanned from the Point of Impact, identifying how their trends would impact society.
Collaborating with their scenario team, think tank participants then examined the intricate dance between their social, technological, environmental, economic, and political trends to identify patterns or emerging landscapes of change.
Each team identified a pattern resulting from the clustering of their trends, values, and implications.
This is an example of team's pattern that was used in tandem with TFSX-researched patterns to form the building blocks of the scenario worlds.
Take a tour of the think tank's Futures Intelligence Mural canvas.
Scenarios showcase the far-reaching implications of a multitude of today's patterns and trends. As "starter dough," think tank participants also leveraged the TFSX patterns in their scenario work product.
Watch a video exploring the TFSX patterns: Creator Economy, Blurred Reality, and Intentional Evolution
Having identified and explored their emerging landscapes of change, the scenario teams entered the Map phase.
Scenario teams used Drivers Wheels, a tool designed using the STEEP framework.
STEEP stands for Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political. We call this version of the tool “Drivers Wheels” because STEEP represents drivers of change. It’s easier to imagine implications when we consider an issue’s impacts on society, technology, the economy, and so forth.
Each team began with their recently developed pattern in the center, and then identified 10 short, mid, and long-term implications.
Take a tour of the think tank's Drivers Wheels Mural canvas.
With the scenario scaffolds complete, think tank participants turned their attention to creating the future of healthcare!
"I want to create my future, not just let it happen to me."
Successful foresight efforts require capacity building and process integration.
According to a longitudinal study, organizations that intentionally plan for the future outperform their peers in terms of profitability and overall valuation.
Strategic Foresight should act more like an operating system than just another app that is added to the organization’s processes.
Successful integration requires that we prioritize fueling our strategy, innovation, change, and development efforts with foresight.
Half of think tank participants were seeking to inform strategy or decision-making with the healthcare scenarios.
One third were hoping to drive disruptive innovation. About 14% were seeking to fuel change efforts, and under 10% were seeking personal development.
When we asked think tank participants how they plan on using the scenarios they built (specifically)...here's what they said.
"Though I had been involved in the foresight community for a long time before enrolling in this course, this topic-based session was quite beneficial. It was a terrific way to get the tools, hear about how to use them, and exchange experiences with global practitioners of foresight. I heartily endorse this deeply educational experience!"