MIXED SIGNALS: FOR REAL ESTATE, THERE ARE TWO SIDES TO TODAY'S ECONOMIC NEWS
For people watching their wallets – and who isn’t? – a negative economic headline might land like a wet blanket on your burning desire to buy a home.
But before you set your goals aside, it pays to bring perspective to what you see in the press. Because for each seemingly pessimistic report, there can be a positive interpretation for what it all means for your real estate decisions.
Appreciation rates
With the news that the pace of home sales is slowing and home price appreciation is flattening out in some communities, some pundits will contend that this may not be the right time to buy a home. But there’s a flip side to that argument. There is also evidence that housing inventory is up in many locales, which means more choice for buyers – and less competition among buyers that can help avoid unwanted bidding wars.
Financial markets
For example, we all hear the daily drumbeat about the volatility of the stock market. While you might read that Wall Street is wobbly, and think you should be cautious about making a major purchase, keep in mind that real estate in America holds a long track record as a safe and secure place to invest.
Over time, history shows that home values stand up well to the ups and downs of the economy. Since 1991, average home prices across the U.S. have increased 327.82 percent. In Colorado, that figure is 596.7 percent.
Affordability
Concerns over home affordability have been a constant subject of analysis, especially since the pandemic-era surge in prices. And with mortgage rates hovering around 6.75 percent, it’s become even more prevalent.
But the good news is that rates have actually been inching down in recent months, falling by about one-half percent (50 basis points) in that time. Combine that news with the fact that average wages have been increasing over the past two years, and affordability has improved for some homebuyers. The irony is, many of today’s headlines portrayed by some media as negative, are exactly what we hoped for a couple of years ago.
Call to learn about what’s happening behind the headlines so you can make the real estate decision that’s best for you.
WELD COUNTY GROWTH HIGHLIGHTS DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS FOR NORTHERN COLORADO
As Colorado’s rate of population growth has been slowing in recent years, Weld County keeps bucking the trend.
The latest U.S. Census report shows that Weld County’s population increased by 2.6 percent between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024 – the fastest growing among all Front Range counties. At 9,529 new residents, Weld accounted for 17 percent of all population growth in the state during those 12 months.
With 369,745 total residents, Weld is closing the gap on neighboring Larimer County. Larimer grew by 3,044 new residents – a 0.8 percent growth rate – raising its population to 374,574. If the same growth rates are repeated this year, Weld will be the biggest county by population on the northern Front Range by this summer.
Weld’s population trends are partly influenced by its comparative baby boom. While the annual number of births in Colorado has declined since a peak year in 2007, Weld County’s number of births kept growing, reaching a record high in 2024.
Locally, while Weld County is expected to maintain a natural population increase (births outnumbering deaths) until 2050, Larimer County is expected to experience a natural decrease between 2030 and 2040. That means Larimer County will be reliant on migration to maintain population growth.
Here is a look at a range of demographic trends in both the state and region, as reported by the Colorado State Demography Office and U.S. Census data:
- 85% of Colorado’s population lives in the 12 counties that comprise the Front Range.
- Between 2010 and 2020, Colorado’s population grew by 14.8%, twice the rate of U.S. growth, 7.4%.
- Between 2010 and 2020, Colorado added 745,000 residents. The U.S. added 22.7 million during the same period.
- Colorado’s population has grown annually since the early 1970s. However, the growth rate has slowed in recent years, declining to less than 1 percent (0.95) between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024.
- From 2010-2020, Colorado ranked in the top 10 among states for actual population change and growth rate. Since 2020, Colorado’s growth rate has slowed, ranking 11th in actual change (number of people) and 16th in rate of change.
- Colorado is projected to add 1.6 million people between 2020 and 2050, reaching a total population of 7.4 million.
- The annual number of births in Colorado peaked in 2007, but that total has declined steadily since then.
- Weld County’s population is expected to grow by 25% between 2020 and 2050, more than double the state growth projection of 11%.
- The state’s natural increase (the gap between the number of births and number of deaths) is narrowing, but is expected to remain positive until 2050.
- While the statewide birth totals have declined since 2007, Weld County reached its peak birth year in 2024.
- While Weld County is expected to maintain a natural population increase (more births than deaths) until 2050, Larimer County is expected to experience a natural decrease between 2030 and 2040.
- Larimer County has a greater percentage of its population aged 65 and older than the statewide average.
We opened our newest office in Greeley earlier this year and would welcome the opportunity to share our insight on Weld County with you.
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FORT COLLLINS, GREELEY RANKED HIGH AMONG MILKEN'S ‘BEST-PERFORMING’ CITIES
Thanks to continuing job and wage growth, Northern Colorado’s two largest cities stand tall among the country’s 200 biggest metro areas.
According to the Milken Institute’s 2025 report on best-performing cities in the United States, Fort Collins and Greeley both rank among the top 50 for economic prosperity. At No. 21, Fort Collins is second among Colorado cities, behind No.5 Colorado Springs. Greeley registers at No. 48 nationally.
The Milken rankings emphasize factors that show economic growth between 2018 and 2023, the latest year for which complete data was available. Along with job and wage growth, the report accounts for local growth among high-tech sector businesses as well as so-called economic opportunity metrics, which includes the percentage of households with broadband internet service and the share of households with affordable rents and mortgages.
The Fort Collins metro area, which covers Larimer County, reported 8.7 percent job growth between 2018-2023 and 3.2 percent between 2022-2023. Local wage growth was 41.7 percent for 2018-2023 and 8.8 percent from 2022-2023.
For Greeley, which accounts for all of Weld County, total jobs increased just 4.6 percent from 2018-2023, but jumped at a robust 4.2 percent in one year from 2022-2023 – better than all but 15 cities in the survey. Greeley-area wages grew 26.6 percent from 2018-2023 and 4.8 percent from 2022-2023.
Among other large Colorado metro areas, Denver-Aurora-Lakewood ranked No. 29 and Boulder ranked No. 41. Among the 203 small metros listed by Milken, Grand Junction ranked No. 60 and Pueblo ranked No. 132.
REMOTE WORK ON DOWNWARD TREND SINCE 2020
A recent LinkedIn report shows that the rate of remote work across the United States has been shrinking over the past five years, dwindling from nearly half in October of 2020 to just about one-quarter in February of this year.
LinkedIn’s Workforce Confidence survey in late 2020 showed that 46 percent of all employees were working remotely – coinciding with the peak of pandemic-related stay-at-home requirements. At the same time, 12 percent of workers were in hybrid roles (a blend of remote and onsite work), and 39 percent worked primarily onsite.
Nearly five years later, the latest Workforce Confidence survey reveals that just 26 percent of workers were still remote; hybrid work schedules are up slightly (16 percent), while the share of onsite work is up to 55 percent.
REAL ESTATE BY NUMBERS
- $32.875 million. Price that Chicago-based investors paid to buy the 55 Resort, located in the Water Valley development in Windsor. The new owners have renamed the 120-unit senior living complex as Eagles Peak at Water Valley. The development includes a fitness center, pool, movie theater, game rooms and a dog park.
- 64.4 percent. The portion of new home prices in 2024 that was attributable to construction costs, according to the National Association of Home Builders, up from 61.1 percent in 2019.
- $1.84 million. Price that In-N-Out Burger paid to buy two acres for a future restaurant in southeast Longmont. The new burger spot is targeted for the intersection of Ken Pratt Boulevard and Harvest Moon Drive and would be the first In-N-Out Burger in Boulder County.
- 1987. The median year that homes were built in Colorado, according to a new report by PropertyShark. That means roughly half of the state’s homes were built before 1987, and the other half were built after 1987. Only four states report a more recent median year built.
- $24.5 million. Estimated investment for the Heart Improvement Plan, a re-development project for downtown Loveland. As planned, the city will overhaul a five-block section of Fourth Street between Jefferson and Garfield avenues, including the streetscape, lighting, public art, landscaping and decorative fencing.
- $3.6 million. Price that Idaho-based grocery chain WinCo Foods paid for development land in Firestone. The 12-acre lot is located near the Del Camino commercial neighborhood, located just east of the intersection of Interstate 25 and Colorado Highway 119 in southwest Weld County.
- $35 million. Estimated investment that the town of Evans plans to make to build a new police station. The project includes a new 33,000-square-foot building on a lot south of City Hall. The town previously paid $1.7 million to buy a 10-acre development lot for the police station.
- $19 million. Sale price for the Broomfield Marketplace strip center, located 1100 U.S. Highway 287 in Broomfield. A Cincinnati, Ohio-based investment group bought the center, which includes a King Soopers grocery store. King Soopers is owned by The Kroger Co., also based in Cincinnati.
- 76 million. Approximate number of Americans who live in communities with a homeowner’s association. HOA dues and condominium association fees increased by 6 percent on average from 2023 to 2024, according to a survey by Redfin.
- $16.8 million. The new list price for the Greystone Estate in Evergreen, which includes a 12,000-square-foot, 25-room main house, along with six accessory buildings. The property was first listed in 2023 for $26.8 million. Additional buildings include a cottage, log cabin, pool house, carriage house, pavilion, and guest house.
- $77.8 million. Sale price for a 400-unit manufactured-home community in Longmont. A Canadian-based investor acquired the Longview Manufactured Home Community at 11135 Longview Blvd., located in southeast Longmont.
- 16.07 percent. Share of Colorado’s population aged 65 and older, which ranks No. 45 among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Maine, 22.94 percent, has the highest ratio of senior citizens. Utah has the lowest at 12.16 percent.