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GOVERNANCE TOP 10 TAKEAWAYS

1

The historical process of state formation consisted of the sequential pursuit of territorial security, building capacity and expanding inclusion. Instead of this inward-outward process, the African state was an external, colonial imposition. African states effectively gained sovereignty when the Cold War ended in 1989.

2

As a result, Africa has poorer (or less) governance when compared to the average for the rest of the World.

  • Many African states have fragile security foundations
  • Capacity cannot be built without a secure and stable foundation
  • More inclusion can only marginally compensate for a lack of security and capacity.

3

Using an index to measure security, capacity and inclusion, compared to the average for the rest of the world, Africa has

  • About 15% less security
  • About 38% less capacity (although North Africa does much better than sub-Saharan Africa)
  • About 18% less inclusion (although sub-Saharan Africa does better than North Africa)

4

At low levels of development, the state's role is key, but the ratio of government expenditure to GDP in sub-Saharan Africa at 22%, is the lowest of all regions globally. The average for the rest of the world is 35%.

5

The quality of governance in Africa has remained unchanged over the last decade, reflecting slow economic growth and modest improvements in average incomes.

  • Only more rapid and inclusive economic development will change this.

6

Technically, poor African countries don’t need a democratic state but one where the political and bureaucratic elite has the genuine determination and autonomous capacity to define, pursue and implement developmental goals. In the long term, democracy offers the most promise.

7

We model the impact of better governance on development outcomes:

8

By 2043 better governance can contribute:

  • An additional 9% to the size of the African economy (US$748 billion)
  • 37 million fewer extremely poor Africans
  • 6% higher GDP per capita

9

Practically, effective governance requires a broad tax base, the means to provide security, and legitimacy.

  • Foreign aid partly compensates for low levels of revenue collection but undermines the social contract.
  • To avoid the associated adverse effects, aid should be tied to clear outcomes and include support to provide security.

10

Western donors should resist the temptation to demand that Africans adhere to the human rights standards possible in high-income countries. Focus on good governance and fair elections.

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