HOUSING SALES MAY BE DOWN, BUT DEMAND – AND PRICES – HAVEN'T BUDGED
Pick up a newspaper or click on a news website and there’s a common thread to headlines about residential real estate: “Home sales sluggish,” “Rough stretch for housing market.”
There are variations on the theme. And the understandable conclusion is that lagging sales must also be driving down housing prices. But reality paints a different picture. In most markets, demand remains consistent, which has been keeping prices stable. The more influential factor: not enough sellers.
A recent report by Redfin tells us that just 14 out of every 1,000 American homes changed ownership in first six months of 2023. By comparison the turnover rate in the first half of 2019 was 19:1,000. During past periods of high activity, the rate has surpassed 40:1,000.
Bottom line. Sales have been tempered because many would-be buyers don’t have many options. Potential sellers are cautious about giving up their existing low-interest mortgages, which is squeezing supply.
But what happens if mortgage rates slip back below the 6-percent threshold for 30-year fixed loans? Experts predict there’s a large pool of buyers just waiting for the opportunity to move as soon as they know the monthly payments might be more manageable.
Data from the NY Federal Reserve Bank underlines that potential. A survey of homeowners under age 50 shows that between 2018 and 2021, less than 10 percent were expecting to move within the next two years. But that figure jumped to more than 25 percent in 2022-2023.
The takeaway? There’s pent-up demand, and if you’ve been waiting to buy, you could get caught up in the rush if you hold out too long. Prices are not dropping while you wait.
Local data shows that inventory in Weld and Larimer counties is back to two months’ worth of supply – after falling to less than a month in early 2022 (The two-month figure is on par with the average for the past 10 years).
It’s time to start your search again. There may be a house out there that meets your needs.
Call me to discuss your potential real estate needs.
APPLY A WINNING TOUCH TO YOUR GARDEN IN 2024
It’s late summer and many annuals are in peak bloom. So, it’s a great time to start planning next year’s flower garden. If you need inspiration, visit CSU’s Annual Flower Trial Garden, and take a look at 2023 Winning Flowers announced earlier this growing season.
The three-acre garden, located at 1401 Remington St., next door to CSU’s the University Center for the Arts (the west side of the original Fort Collins High School) is a Northern Colorado showpiece focused on research and community outreach
Each year, the Annual Flower Trial Garden tests and analyzes the performance of more than 1,000 varieties of annual bedding plants in Colorado’s harsh growing conditions. Dozens of expert evaluators rate the plants for vigor, growth pattern, bloom, and other characteristics. Home gardeners can use the trial results to identify plants most likely to succeed.
The trial garden – the largest of its kind west of the Mississippi River – is free to tour and open daily during daylight hours. Sun containers are wheelchair accessible with concrete sidewalks; the rest of the gardens provide wide pathways with wood chip mulch or turf along the edges of the beds.
So, grab grandma and grandpa and the kids for a Sunday afternoon or after-supper stroll and check out these all-star plants.
“Best of” Annual Flower winners from the 2022 CSU Trials include:
The trial gardens also feature the best of these plants: angelonia, begonia, calibrachoa, celosia, coleus, combo, dahlia, geranium, gerbera, impatiens, lantana, marigold, osteospermum, petunia, portulaca, rudbeckia, salvia, verbena, vinca, and zinnia.
FLOWER TRIAL GARDEN'S GAZEBO CELEBRATES 40th ANNIVERSARY
A centerpiece of what is now the CSU Flower Trial Garden celebrated its 40th anniversary earlier this year.
In 1983, the Victorian-style gazebo was the vision of a group of Fort Collins High School students, parents, and teachers, aiming to improve the image of what was then a city park across from the original FCHS, 1401 Remington St. Advocates put out a call for volunteers and the community responded: Sinnett Builders coordinated the project and labor, Fort Collins Nursery provided the original landscaping, and CRM Architects designed the structure, including the cupola that echoes the cupola atop the high school.
The gazebo is dedicated to Kenneth and Cele Ash in honor of their work helping Poudre School District create comprehensive programs to address student alcohol and drug use and prevention. The Ashes firmly believe the vision realized through the construction of the gazebo is for the health of the kids, not for their honor!
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS
The Group is celebrating the one year anniversary of its expansion to Colorado’s premier resort region. On August 1, 2022 The Group acquired Colorado Group Realty in Steamboat Springs, including its main office in downtown Steamboat and a second office in Hayden. This acquisition marks The Group’s first venture outside of Northern Colorado. The move combined two like-minded firms, both affiliated with Leading Real Estate Companies of the World.
PRETTY SWIFT! MUSICAL ICON GETS STATE ECONOMY TO HIT A HIGH NOTE
You didn’t have to attend her sold-out Denver shows on the weekend of July 14-15 to get a sense of how Taylor Swift made a splash on the Colorado economy.
In Larimer County, there were reports of traffic nearly at a standstill on Interstate 25 in the hours leading up to the concerts. And one look at the audience made it clear that thousands of Colorado “Swifties” likely invested in new outfits for the occasion.
In Denver, hotels, restaurants, and gift shops were buzzing with both locals and out-of-town visitors who traveled in for the event. According to economists, Swift’s appearance generated about $200 million in consumer spending along the Front Range alone. The two shows at Empower Field at Mile High led to an estimated $38 million in ticket sales, which is roughly 63 percent of an entire summer concert season at the fabled Red Rocks amphitheater.
Swift’s tour is also a national sensation. On the opening night of her Eras Tour in Arizona, over 69,000 people attended so Swift officially broke the record for the highest-attended concert for a female artist, which had been held since 1987 by Madonna. According to tour watchers, concert-related spending in 20 American cities where Swift is performing was expected to reach up to $4.6 billion. On average, a concertgoer spent $1,327 – a figure that includes tickets, travel, merchandise, lodging and food.
For Swift and her promoters, the U.S. segment of the 52-show concert tour will generate up to $1 billion, making it the highest-grossing musical tour of all time.
REAL ESTATE BY NUMBERS
- 1.9 million. Annual number of new households created between 2019 and 2022, according to Harvard University’s report “The State of the Nation’s Housing 2023.” The study attributed the growth to the need for space that was created by the pandemic, and related financial factors, such as suspension of student loans and government stimulus funds.
- $101.5 million. The price paid by Boulder-based investors for the Seagate Technologies LLC property in Longmont. The 529,437-square-foot complex is located on 40.51 acres. Seagate plans to lease back the property for 10 years.
- 550. Number of housing units planned for the next phase of the Sonders Village development in northeast Fort Collins. Project developers are seeking city approval for the 129.5-acre site, which would include 460 single-family homes and 90 townhomes.
- 38.6 percent. The revenue decline for Airbnb properties in Denver from May 2022 to May 2023, according to a survey by AllTheRooms, which analyzes the short-term rental market. A different analytics firm, AirDNA, disputes the figure, saying Denver revenue in May 2023 was up slightly, 0.4 percent, over the prior May.
- $11 million. Price paid by Microvast to acquire the former Hexcel industrial facility, located at 31815 Great Western Drive in Windsor. Texas-based Microvast plans to use the 99,536-square-foot building for making storage containers for lithium-ion batteries.
- 73,000. Square footage for a new industrial condominium complex, planned for construction on a 4.62-acre site the 2534 development, located near the interchange of Interstate 25 and U.S. Highway 34 in Johnstown.
- $11.7 million. Price paid by an Oklahoma-based auto dealership to acquire the property underlying Peak Kia North in Windsor. The property deal was part of the larger sale of the Peak Kia North dealership, located in South Gate Business Park.
- $4.75 million. Sale price for a 28,396-square-foot office building in south Loveland. The 22-year-old property, located at 3985 S. Lincoln Ave., was purchased by Wing Seven Capital LLC and sold by Boulder-based Tepuy Properties.
- 27. Total acreage that is targeted by Kentucky-based developers, who want to build three distribution warehouses near the northeast corner of Interstate 25 and East Prospect Road in northeast Fort Collins. The project is known as the Crossdock Development.
- 1.7 percent. Share of all mortgaged homes in Colorado for which the borrower has negative equity – meaning they owe more on the loan than the home is worth. Nationally, the figure is 2.1 percent.